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More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic

More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic

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Open-source AI models have surged to represent 62% of token traffic at Vercel, up from 28% just two months ago.
What: Investor Gavin Baker reports that open-source AI is rapidly gaining token market share against frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, despite total demand for AI compute increasing across the board.
Why it matters: This shift suggests that while frontier models maintain their dominance in high-value reasoning tasks, open-source models are becoming the default choice for inference to manage costs, effectively turning model serving into a commodity.
Original article

More data than open-source AI is taking share from OpenAI and Anthropic. Open source has gone from 28% token share to 62% token share @vercel over the last 2 months. Chart from @rauchg

Super impressive given that the sum of OpenAI and Anthropic accelerated in July. So net token/AI infra demand accelerated even more than the acceleration we saw at the frontier. And suspect Grok growing even faster than open-source and we saw some of this in the @tryramp data.

Open-source AI taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand as it lowers margins at the model layer and an open-source token costs just as much compute to produce as a frontier token. Nothing about open-source AI inference is “free.”

Most likely end state IMO is that closed, frontier tokens are 60-90% of economic value but only 15 to 25% of tokens.

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