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Betting on Drug Trials and Approvals Prompts Concerns About Undermining Research
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are now facilitating wagers on the success of sensitive clinical drug trials and FDA approval decisions.
What: Financial platforms have expanded into speculative markets for medical outcomes, allowing users to bet on FDA approval timelines and the success of drug trials.
Why it matters: This creates new, potentially destabilizing incentives that could pressure researchers or firms by turning sensitive medical data into tradable financial assets.
Decoder
- Prediction market: A platform where participants bet on the outcome of future events, with the market price often used as a proxy for the probability of that event occurring.
Original article
Kalshi and Polymarket now offer wagers on whether the FDA will approve medicines and whether drug trials will succeed.
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