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The Flat Curve Society
Anthropic suggests a future where superintelligence is sequestered behind institutional walls, leaving the average user with stagnating model progress.
What: Steve Yegge analyzes Anthropic's outlook, arguing that compute constraints and government regulations will effectively freeze open-source AI progress at 'Fable' class capabilities.
Why it matters: This indicates a potential bifurcation in the AI industry, where model capabilities become a status symbol accessible only to elite institutions while the general public faces a ceiling.
Decoder
- Fable class: An informal designation for a specific generation of high-capability AI models that marks a plateau in performance for public-facing or open-source software.
Original article
Anthropic claims that AI model intelligence has become dangerous. AI will continue to grow exponentially in capability, but most people will stop seeing progress. Only a few will have access to superintelligence above the classes of models seen this year. Open models are not likely to improve past Fable class due to huge compute requirements and government lockdowns.
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