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Programming in 2026: excitement, dread, and the coming wave

Programming in 2026: excitement, dread, and the coming wave

Tech aibackendllmstartupsoftware-engineering
Andrew Montalenti argues programmers now ship entire codebases with 99.9% AI-generated code using Claude Code, fundamentally transforming software development from a craft into managing 'alien technology' within just 6-9 months.
What: Montalenti, founder of PX Systems, writes that in the last 6-9 months programmers started using Claude Code to generate complete working applications from natural language prompts. Anthropic built Claude Cowork in 10 days (using Claude Code itself) to bring agentic coding to non-programmers. OpenAI followed with Codex for Everything. Meanwhile, CS undergraduate enrollments entered rapid decline after peaking 3x above 2006 levels, as students question whether learning to program is still worthwhile.
Why it matters: This marks the first time the fundamental nature of software development itself has changed, not just the tooling. Previous platform shifts (web, mobile, cloud) required learning new languages but the craft remained the same. Now code has become 'just an intermediate artifact' in automating knowledge work. Software transforms first because it's a closed system of verifiable, non-subjective artifacts the market values differently than film or music.
Takeaway: If you're building dev tools or infrastructure, focus on deterministic tooling for running AI-generated code reliably—the zero-to-one problem is solved, but deployment and execution reliability remain unsolved.
Deep dive
  • Programmers historically lived in the future as early adopters (internet, remote work, SaaS), but 2026 represents unprecedented acceleration—'agentic coding' crossed the chasm in 6-9 months instead of years
  • Split reaction among programmers: excitement camp ('I have an army of free junior programmers') vs existential dread camp ('Did I waste years learning code intricacies?')
  • Anthropic noticed Claude Code's rapid adoption among programmers and predicted making agentic coding available to non-coders would accelerate mainstream adoption
  • Claude Cowork built in 10 days mostly using Claude Code itself, demonstrating recursive self-improvement—OpenAI responded with 'Codex for Everything'
  • Both products decide whether to respond from pre-trained models or write/execute sandboxed code on-the-fly, presenting results in natural language
  • Anthropic shipped Claude Add-ons for Excel, Word, PowerPoint using same approach—'Just-In-Time-Software' (JITS) eating the world, not traditional SaaS
  • CS enrollments in rapid decline after historically high 2019-2023 levels, conventional wisdom now says learning to program is no longer a good investment
  • Fortune 500 rushing to adopt 'AI strategy' without clear goals; Silicon Valley reducing junior hiring while 'tokenmaxxing' to push senior engineers harder
  • Key difference from past technology cycles: previous shifts (smartphones requiring Java/Kotlin for Android, Objective-C/Swift for iOS) changed platforms but not the fundamental craft
  • Programming was a craft where code mattered as art; now all that matters is 'ruthless efficiency of shipped product' since nobody reads code for fun or information—only to change it
  • Software will transform before film/music because it's a closed system of mostly non-subjective artifacts—what makes software good is 'merely how well it works'
  • Author's popular Python style guide now exists as 'just some weights' in training data, improving style of generated code that might be written once, run once, thrown away
  • Author simultaneously excited (techno-optimist, startup advantage at PX Systems providing 'code to cloud cluster in seconds' tooling) and scared (haven't thought this through, wave getting taller)
  • PX Systems bet: px cluster up and px job submit make just-in-time cloud provisioning for AI-generated code as easy as local execution
Decoder
  • Agentic coding: Development approach where AI agents write entire codebases from natural language prompts in iterative 'agentic loops' with minimal human-written code, popularized by Claude Code
  • Claude Cowork: Anthropic product bringing agentic coding to non-programmers via natural language interface, built in 10 days using Claude Code itself
  • Crossing the chasm: Geoffrey Moore's framework for tech adoption moving from early adopters to mainstream, usually taking years—here it happened in 6-9 months
  • JITS (Just-In-Time-Software): Montalenti's term for AI-generated code written on-demand to solve problems, run in sandboxed environments, then potentially discarded—replacing traditional SaaS model
  • Tokenmaxxing: Experimental practice of maximizing LLM token usage and output to push productivity limits
Original article

A big part of software engineering is now communicating with an alien technology we don't - and can't - fully understand.

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