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The Unsustainable Subsidy

The Unsustainable Subsidy

AI Tom Tunguz
AI model prices are generally rising, with Google tripling annually and OpenAI increasing after subsidies, as vendors prioritize margins over market share due to tight cash and record capex.
What: Tom Tunguz highlights that AI model pricing is becoming unsustainable, with Google's AI prices tripling yearly and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 increasing to $5.00/1M input and $30.00/1M output after an initial subsidy. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 sits at $5.00/1M input and $25.00/1M output, while Google Gemini 3.1 Pro remains the lowest cost at $2.00/1M input and $12.00/1M output.
Why it matters: The shift from subsidized pricing to higher costs indicates a market maturing where AI providers, facing immense capital expenditures, are prioritizing profitability and sustainable business models over aggressive market share acquisition.
Takeaway: When planning or scaling AI applications, factor in potentially increasing LLM API costs, especially if your current pricing seems heavily subsidized or below market averages.
Original article

Google’s AI triples in price each year.

OpenAI’s flagship model was seemingly subsidized for a while, before rising again.

Anthropic’s AI has been the same price for a little bit & decreased for the most powerful models.

Those are three very different pricing strategies. If we compare the absolutes, the data completes the picture.

Vendor Model Input ($/1M) Output ($/1M)
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro $2.00 $12.00
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7 $5.00 $25.00
OpenAI GPT-5.5 $5.00 $30.00

Google remains the low-cost player, increasing the price on all its models but still less than half of the competition. Anthropic had maintained a luxe pricing until late last year.

The pricing changes indicate changes in strategy : cuts when cash is plentiful & share matters. Increases when cash is tight & margins matter. The latter is the case for all three vendors now when capex spending continues to set records.

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